Osipov G.V., Ponkratov V.V., Karepova S.G., Volkova M.V., Karaev A.K., Kuznetsov N.V. Economic and mathematical modeling of the shocks impact on the Russian economy stability. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 2020, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 101-116.

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Аннотация

The identification and analysis of structural trends and the close monitoring of macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities can improve economic resilience to shocks. This research modeled the effects of exogenous and endogenous economic shocks on the stability of the Russian Federation’s economic system. Granger test results uncovered that the key internal, external, and global economic shocks affecting Russia’s economic stability are productive, monetary, and budget policy shocks, foreign exchange shocks, and oil price shocks. A spectral analysis confirmed the absence of structural changes in the Russian economy from 2000 to 2018, which was regarded as the basis of representativeness of the chosen study period. Vector autoregression models were used to determine specific shock effects on the aforementioned stability, and elasticity indicators were calculated to characterize the response of the Russian economy to economic impulses (shocks). The calculation enabled us to classify types of shock by priority. The results can serve as reference in developing domestic and foreign economic policies intended to prevent or minimize the impact of external negative shocks on the economy of Russia. They can also be adopted as guidelines in formulating measures of Russian economic growth stimulation.

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